Iraq: what to do next

This morning's news is all about George W. Bush's speech on Iraq. Which leaves the question, what SHOULD be done next? Other posts have dealt with the main objective (establish a system based on land rent!) But what about the immediate short term?

GWB tries to build nations using force. But if you want to build a nation, it is better to use carrots than sticks. The immediate strategy must be to support those people who want us, and stop trying to control those who don't. In other words:

1. partition Iraq (e.g. into Kurdish, Sunni, Shi’ite, and smaller micro-states)
2. include a pro-American enclave for those who really want it, with a rule that its borders can expand if (and only if) large numbers of others want to join.

This is only the first step, but we have to start somewhere. Here are some objections:

• The neighbors would object? Unlikely, since we would be leaving them most of the country. But if they did, they lack the power to do anything about it. This applies to nations (Iran, Turkey, etc.) and to warlords in the new micro states.
• We could not police the borders? A clearly defined border is fairly easy to police, if there is sufficient surveillance inside, and everybody inside wants to be there.
• Does this lead to equally undesirable police surveillance states? They are only undesirable if people are not free to leave. Under this system, Iraq would have as many states as there are differences of opinion, but the strong ones would be at peace.
• Federations of microstates cannot survive - look at Yugoslavia? Or look at the USA. But regarding Yugoslavia, land rent would have solved this problem. The Yugoslav crisis was made much worse because the west dithered and did not have clear rules for action. Land rent provides those clear rules. It defines what is and is not acceptable for a nation state.
• Partitioning would create more Islamic theocracies, which would strengthen their neighbors? First, the nations would not last very long as their smartest people gradually left to join the more attractive western microstate. Second, with the west forbidden to interfere, the ordinary people would have less reason to fear us.

In short, when nation building, it is better to use carrots instead of sticks.