Venezuela, Chavez, and poverty

Pat Robertson, famous follower of Jesus and lover of democracy, says the US should assassinate Hugo Chavez, that guy who keeps winning elections in Venezuela, but doesn't support US policies. Those elections were pronounced fair by outside observers. Chavez won despite having powerful enemies - the wealthy elite hate him, they control the media, and the media is constantly promoting anti-Chavez stories. Yet Chavez wins. Why? Because the poor love him. And after six years of his reforms, they love him even more.

This isn't a pure land rent story, but it involves resource ownership, and it illustrates how the poor can sometimes win against the rich. When Chavez came to power, Venezuela was an extremely unequal country. Most of the wealth was owned by a tiny minority, and they naturally want to keep that wealth. They own the businesses and they own the media, and are not afraid to use them against Chavez. Some of these bogus news stories are repeated in the USA. I don't have time to look at them all, so let us just look at The Big One.

The backbone of the anti-Chavez case is that he allegedly increased poverty in his country. Strangely, the poor people don't seem to have noticed. Let us look at the oft-quoted statistics:

before 1998: poverty was increasing steadily for 28 years.
1998: (Chavez first elected) poverty is at 49%
1999: Chavez reverses the trend: poverty is DOWN to 42%
2000: (Chavez is elected again) poverty DOWN AGAIN to 41%.
2001: poverty DOWN AGAIN to 39% Chavez has a great record. But he made powerful enemies. In April they organize a coup, which is quickly supported by Washington. But the coup fails. Plan 'B' has the bosses and managers shutting down the oil industry for several months. Oil is Venezuela's life blood - this is a catastrophe of the worst magnitude. When a country is crippled, who is hurt most? That's right, the poor. Notice that this is caused by the oil managers. It's called a strike, but it was led by the owners and managers. Poverty skyrocketed:
2002: The statistics are gathered in the first quarter of each year. After just a few weeks of the chaos, poverty is up to 41%
2003: After months of no income, thanks to the oil barons, poverty peaks at 54%
2004: now the strike is over, Chavez once again gets poverty going DOWN: just 1 percent to 53%, but getting poverty down is much harder than getting it up.
2005: The numbers aren't in yet, but every indication is that they will be DOWN again.

These numbers only tell half the story. They don't count the longer term social changes put in place. But the poor see the changes. That's why they vote for Chavez in landslide numbers, again and again. The power of the oil barons has been broken, now Chavez can turn his attention to tackling corruption and other problems. His biggest danger is Pat Robertson-inspired assassins, or an US backed coup. If the USA can just give democracy a chance, the future looks very bright for Venezuela.