making deals with the enemy

In today's news, North Korea is entering nuclear talks with the west. North Korea, remember, probably ranks number one in the west's list of evil nations. Yet they are willing to talk. Let's talk about evil groups for a while.

For any group to be successful, they need to cooperate and compromise. I'm not talking about individuals - a serial killer can do a great deal of evil without any help. But for organizations, by definition they need to compromise and cooperate to survive. Ironically, their words may say the precise opposite, because strong leaders need a simple message that everyone understands. So the words may say "no compromise!" but the actions say something different.

I have found this to be the case with every "evil" group I have ever seen. From the Nazis to suicide cults to Stalinist Russia - all of them. The more they compromise (usually in secret), the longer they survive. The less they compromise, the quicker they destroy themselves. It's called realpolitik. Which leads to the conclusion that, no matter how bad things may seem, if the enemy is organized, we can talk with them. I try to keep these blogs as short as possible, so let's just look at North Korea. Maybe another day we can talk about other "evil" groups.

North Korea's economy is in a real mess and has been for years. So why hasn't it collapsed? For the answer, visit http://www.policyreview.org/oct04/eberstadt_print.html Here is a summary. North Korea has not collapsed because... (drum roll please) George W. Bush's government has been supporting it. In public, we are mortal enemies. In private, we (wisely) cooperate where we can. Here are the key points:

The USSR stopped subsidies in 1991. The already bad NK economy got worse - leading to famine in the mid 1990s (this was the only industrialized nation ever to have a famine). The terrible trade levels with the west - even before 1991 - were the result of a deliberate policy to avoid CocaColanisation. But since then things have got a little better:

• There has been a small improvement in exports
• China sells NK goods that will never be paid for
• South Korea secretly sends money (lots of family connections)
• Illegal trade - counterfeiting, arms, drugs
• Following America's lead, other nations have transferred money in various forms (e.g. high fees for tourism, inspection, plus humanitarian aid, etc.). - including significant amounts since GWB got his job.

Why has the west done this? Uniquely among all nations, NK treats its military as a revenue generator and key to economic success: partly this is through illegal arms sales, but partly, the threat of nuclear weapons is what keeps the aid coming! This might be a good idea, it might not - certainly if it avoids nuclear war and allows secret diplomacy, it is a very small price to pay.

Finally, there is evidence of small but real economic reforms: markets and billboards are appearing, and money is becoming important (most people probably survived by barter during the famine). So in ten years time, NK might be like China is now, and things will slowly, very slowly, get better for everyone.

In public we talk tough. But in private we cooperate where we can, and this should slowly remove the threat of global nuclear war. Yes, you can cooperate with your enemies, and yes it does work.